Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-21 07:05Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are likely to continue oscillating at low levels, with geopolitical support at the bottom but limited upward momentum [5] - In the short term, the shutdown of Russian refineries and the "rush to transport" demand before the implementation of EU sanctions may provide marginal support for oil prices, but the discovery of new oil fields by BP, the price cut of gasoline in Brazil, and the strengthening of the substitution effect of renewable fuels in the US have strengthened the expectation of loose supply [5] - On the demand side, weak industrial data in China and energy transition policies in Europe and the US have suppressed refinery operating rates, and the strengthening of the SC - WTI spread may stimulate an increase in arbitrage shipments, all of which limit the rebound space of oil prices [5] - If the geopolitical conflict does not escalate further, oil prices may continue to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes: On October 20, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.18% to 435.8 yuan/barrel, while the prices of WTI and Brent remained flat at $57.25/barrel and $61.34/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread rebounded from -$0.3/barrel to -$0.16/barrel (a 46.67% increase), and the SC - WTI spread strengthened to $3.93/barrel, indicating a narrowing of the discount of Chinese crude oil futures relative to the external market. The spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive 3 widened to -5.9 yuan/barrel, showing that the market's expectation of tight future supply has loosened [1] - Supply - Side Analysis: The suspension of production at Russia's new Kuybyshevsk refinery due to a drone attack may affect Russian refined oil exports in the short term, but the Russian Foreign Ministry reaffirmed normal oil transportation to India, indicating that the actual impact of geopolitical risks on crude oil supply is limited. The EU's proposal to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by 2028 may weaken Russia's energy revenue in the long term, but the market reaction is dull in the short term due to the long policy implementation cycle. BP's discovery of a new oil field in Namibia and Petrobras' 4.9% cut in gasoline prices may imply that the production increase pressure from non - OPEC+ countries still exists [2] - Demand - Side Analysis: The increase in the blending volume of renewable fuels in the US in September, combined with the continuous promotion of energy transition policies, may form a substitution pressure on traditional crude oil demand. In China, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size slowed down to 5.0% in September (previous value: 5.2%), and the GDP in the third quarter did not meet expectations. Weak industrial activities may suppress crude oil import demand. The significant decline in fuel oil warehouse receipts is related to the recovery of refinery profits, but the terminal consumption of refined oil has not significantly improved [3] - Inventory - Side Analysis: There are no signs of unexpected inventory accumulation in Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories in the US, but the SC crude oil warehouse receipts remain at a high level of 5.21 million barrels. Coupled with the continuous pressure on the near - month contracts of WTI and Brent, it reflects that the global crude oil market is still in a pattern of loose supply and demand [4] - Price Trend Judgment: Crude oil prices may continue to oscillate at low levels, with geopolitical support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. In the short term, the shutdown of Russian refineries and the "rush to transport" demand before the implementation of EU sanctions may provide marginal support for oil prices, but the discovery of new oil fields by BP, the price cut of gasoline in Brazil, and the strengthening of the substitution effect of renewable fuels in the US have strengthened the expectation of loose supply. On the demand side, weak industrial data in China and energy transition policies in Europe and the US have suppressed refinery operating rates, and the strengthening of the SC - WTI spread may stimulate an increase in arbitrage shipments, all of which limit the rebound space of oil prices. If the geopolitical conflict does not escalate further, oil prices may continue to decline [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: On October 20, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.18% to 435.8 yuan/barrel, while the prices of WTI and Brent decreased slightly. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened, and the spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive 3 widened. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.84%, the Cushing inventory decreased by 3.10%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.19%. The API inventory increased by 1.66%. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 7.25%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 7.16% [7] - Fuel Oil: The prices of FU and LU futures increased slightly, and the price of NYMEX fuel oil also increased slightly. Most of the spot and paper - cargo prices remained unchanged. The Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased, and the Singapore inventory increased by 5.89% [8] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: On October 20, Russia's new Kuybyshevsk refinery suspended production due to a drone attack. The EU passed a proposal to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028 [9][10] - Demand: Brazil's state - owned oil company Petrobras cut the wholesale price of gasoline by 4.9%. The blending volume of renewable fuels in the US in September increased compared with August [11] - Inventory: The SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at a high level of 5.21 million barrels, and the fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 13,570 tons [4][8] - Market Information: As of October 21, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures declined. Analysts believe that weak growth expectations, energy transition, and tariff tensions have suppressed the overall outlook for crude oil [13][14] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts are provided, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., which comprehensively reflect the supply, demand, and price trends of the crude oil and fuel oil markets [16][18][20]