成本支撑走弱叠加库存压力，聚酯市场延续弱势震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyester market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to the weakening cost support and inventory pressure. The PX - PTA segment faces dual pressures from cost and demand, and the downstream products' price cuts for inventory reduction may further squeeze profit margins [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - Price: On October 20, the PX main contract closed at 6,268.0 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -37.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,384.0 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, with a basis of -44.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.34 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 57.25 US dollars/barrel [2]. - Supply: The PX plant operating rate shows no obvious contraction signal, and with the expected new capacity, there is still incremental pressure on the supply side. The PTA plant maintenance is insufficient, the operating rate remains at a medium - high level, and the expected new plant commissioning will intensify the supply - loose pattern. The decline in the crude oil price center weakens the PX cost support, and the PX processing fee is expected to be compressed, which may force the PTA cost line to sink [2]. - Demand: The polyester factory operating rate is restricted by the weak terminal orders. The 15 - day average turnover of China Textile City decreased by 23.7% month - on - month, and the falsification of peak - season demand accelerates the negative feedback transmission in the industrial chain. The low sales rate of polyester filament suppresses the polyester operating elasticity, and the marginal driving force on the PTA demand side is further weakened [3]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory has exceeded the high point of the same period in the past three years, and the social inventory days have climbed to 7 - 8 days. The continuous weakening of the inter - month spread reflects the intensifying inventory - accumulation pressure. In the low - processing - fee environment, the factory's price - support ability is weakened, and the high inventory may force the plant to reduce production in advance, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - Price: On October 20, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,028.0 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,285.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 257.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Demand: The MA15 turnover of China Textile City decreased from 851.8 million meters on October 10 to 855.87 million meters on October 20, indicating weak terminal textile demand [4]. - Inventory: The inventories of polyester staple fiber (6.11 days), polyester filament DTY (31.5 days), and FDY (26.1 days) are all higher than the 5 - year average values (4.96/28.42/22.19 days). The inventory pressure of DTY is significant, and although the POY inventory (16.8 days) is lower than the average of 20.40 days, the de - stocking rhythm is blocked [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.38%, the trading volume increased by 36.35%, and the open interest increased by 10.50%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged [5]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.41%, the trading volume increased by 14.03%, and the open interest increased by 4.00%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA 1 - 5, 5 - 9 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 1 spread increased. The import profit decreased slightly [5]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.13%, the trading volume decreased by 7.67%, and the open interest decreased by 0.58%. The spot price in the East China market decreased slightly, and the PF 1 - 5, 9 - 1 spreads increased, while the 5 - 9 spread decreased [5]. - Other products: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, and most polyester filaments remained unchanged, while the price of polyester bottle chips decreased by 0.27% [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, and most polyester filaments remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread decreased by 1.26%, and the polyester bottle chip processing spread decreased by 6.36% [6]. - Light - textile city turnover: The total turnover on October 20 was 653 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 25.03%. The turnover of long - fiber fabrics decreased by 19.48%, and that of short - fiber fabrics decreased by 42.79% [6]. - Industrial chain load rate: The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [6]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 19.39%, while those of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 23.53%, 8.30%, and 9.00% respectively [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On October 20, Fed's Musalem said that if employment faces more risks and inflation is under control, he may support another interest - rate cut. The Israel - Hamas conflict continued with various statements and actions from both sides [7]. - On October 17, various Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The World Gold Council research head said the gold market was not saturated, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange called for risk control [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand On October 20, the total turnover of China Textile City was 653.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 25.03%, with 529.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric turnover and 123.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric turnover [9]. 3.4 Appendix - Analysis of Future Price Trends - Supply side: PX and PTA may have sufficient supply. The high operating rate of PX and PTA plants and the expected new capacity may lead to an oversupply situation. The decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, but the impact on supply also depends on refineries' production willingness [36]. - Demand side: The turnover of China Textile City has declined, indicating weak polyester demand. The weak downstream demand may lead to a decline in polyester operating rates, which in turn suppresses PTA prices [37]. - Inventory side: The high PTA factory inventory indicates great inventory - accumulation pressure. The combination of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory may lead to further inventory accumulation and price suppression [37].