有色金属周报：供需双增，铅价维持高位整理-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report After the holiday, both supply and demand in the lead market increased. Considering that the resumption of production of secondary lead was restricted by profit, raw materials, etc., and the transportation of lead ingots coincided with the fruit and vegetable season, the market circulation of lead was limited. Therefore, the lead price was expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.15% to 16,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.38% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 2.13% to 1,971.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 110 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remained unchanged, and the TC quotation was stable with a weakening trend. The smelter profit declined, and as of October 10, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 68.7 yuan/ton [30]. 3.2 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.64% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major domestic primary lead smelters was expected to be 50,100 tons, a decrease from the previous week, mainly due to local maintenance and production fluctuations in Inner Mongolia [31][36]. 3.3 Secondary Lead - As of October 17, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The demand for waste batteries increased, but the holders had limited supply and were reluctant to sell, so the waste battery price was relatively firm and was expected to rise further [44]. - As of October 17, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 120 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 336 yuan/ton. The lead price weakened, while the waste battery price was firm, resulting in a slight decline in smelter profit [50]. - As of October 16, the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters decreased to 137,200 tons, and the finished product inventory increased to 3,860 tons. The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 35.1%, and the weekly production reached 46,600 tons. However, considering the average downstream consumption and limited raw material supply, the increase in the operating rate was expected to be restricted [53][56]. 3.4 Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 13.26 percentage points to 74.97%. After the double - festival holiday, the downstream operations basically returned to normal. The demand for electric bicycle and automobile batteries in the terminal market increased steadily, and the performance of battery production enterprises was better than expected [63]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of October 10, the export of refined lead incurred a loss of about 2,800 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the import was profitable at 49.44 yuan/ton, and the import profit window opened [76]. 3.6 Inventory - As of October 16, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 37,700 tons, an increase; the inventory of major primary lead delivery brands in warehouses was 2,980 tons, a decrease. Due to delivery and transfer, some inventory became visible, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased as expected. Considering the improvement in demand, the subsequent increase in social inventory might be limited [87]. - As of October 17, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 41,700 tons, an increase; as of October 16, the LME inventory was 250,400 tons, an increase [90].