乙二醇日报：乙二醇港口累库压制反弹，短期延续弱势运行-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol market is expected to continue its low-level oscillation in the short term. The supply is stable, but the inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the downstream demand shows no obvious signs of improvement. High inventory and low trading volume may limit the price increase space. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion and downstream demand changes [2][3][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - 主力合约与基差: The price of the main ethylene glycol contract remained at 4003 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price in East China also remained stable at 4075 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton (spot premium), indicating no significant change in the futures-spot price difference structure. The short - term market lacks directional drivers [2] - 持仓与成交: The position of the main contract decreased by 8944 lots to 331,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased slightly by 1542 lots to 159,000 lots. The simultaneous contraction of position and trading volume reflects a decline in market trading activity and an increase in capital's wait - and - see sentiment [2] - 供给端: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 71.04%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 76.49% and 62.95% respectively. The profits of ethylene - based plants generally recovered, but the coal - based profits declined slightly. There may be marginal production increase motivation for oil - based plants, but the current operating rate has not reflected it [2] - 需求端: The load of downstream polyester plants remained at 89.42%, and the load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable at 63.43%. The terminal weaving demand has not improved, and the "scissors gap" between high polyester operation and low weaving machine load continues, which may lead to the transmission of polyester finished product inventory pressure to the raw material end [2] - 库存端: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 579,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang also increased by 20,000 tons to 185,000 tons. The port inventory accumulation accelerated, reflecting the contradiction between import arrival pressure and insufficient domestic demand bearing capacity [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - 期货与现货价格: The main MEG futures contract price remained at 4003 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 and a recent increase/decrease of 0.00%. The spot price in the East China market was 4075 yuan/ton, also unchanged [5] - 成交与持仓: The trading volume of the main MEG futures contract decreased by 1542 lots to 158,594 lots, a decrease of 0.96%. The position decreased by 8944 lots to 331,426 lots, a decrease of 2.63% [5] - 利润情况: The profits of ethylene - based production methods such as SD oxidation method, SHELL oxidation method, etc. increased, while the coal - based profit decreased by 23 yuan to 388 yuan/ton. The profits of natural gas - based and oil - field associated gas - based production remained unchanged [5] - 开工负荷: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, and weaving machine loads in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged, with a recent increase/decrease of 0.00% [5] - 库存与到港量: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 579,000 tons, a 7.02% increase. The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 20,000 tons to 185,000 tons, a 12.12% increase [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 20, the focus of the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market remained stable in the morning, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 480 - 484 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the negotiation in the East China US - dollar market was deadlocked, with the negotiation range at 479 - 482 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard [6] - On October 20, the mainstream market was operating at a low level. The South China market had limited fluctuations, the quotations of holders remained stable, and the market transactions were light, with the current price around 4250 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On October 20, international oil prices declined in the morning, but coal prices were strongly supported. Port inventories accumulated, and downstream players made low - level purchases. The market was deadlocked, with the current East China price negotiation reference around 4106 yuan/ton [6] - On October 20, the spot quotation of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi was raised, with the market average price around 3800 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was operating at a low level, the manufacturers' shipments were smooth, and the quotations of Shaanxi goods were raised [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]