Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel futures market showed an oscillating trend. The market is in a weak - balance state with insufficient demand in the peak season, supply - side profit constraints, and inventory reduction providing support. Short - term stainless - steel futures may continue to oscillate within a range, and policy expectations and the "Silver October" performance of the demand side will be the key variables to break the range [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel ss2512 contract oscillated. The opening price dropped to the lowest point of 12,500 and then rebounded to the highest point of 12,615. The trading volume was large at the opening and when the price reached the highest point. The position increased continuously, with a trading volume of 125,870 lots [2]. - Variety Price: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with near - term prices lower than far - term prices. Most contract prices declined slightly, with far - term contracts having a relatively larger decline. The total position of the variety was 289,810 lots, an increase of 5,297 lots from the previous trading day. The position of the active contract ss2512 increased by 7,755 lots, while that of the sub - main contract ss2511 decreased by 2,869 lots [2][4]. 3.2 Spot Market - Basis Data: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2512 changed significantly, with a maximum of 950 yuan/ton and a minimum of 163 yuan/ton, and 423 yuan/ton on the day. Spot prices of 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate varied in different regions, such as 12,700 yuan/ton in Foshan Yongjin, 12,900 yuan/ton in Wuxi Yongjin, etc. [5]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: In the past 10 trading days, registered warehouse receipts decreased overall, from a maximum of 87,803 tons to a minimum of 83,231 tons. On the day, it was 83,231 tons, a decrease of 776 tons from the previous day [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Demand: The demand in the downstream consumption peak season is not optimistic. The total inventory in the Wuxi and Foshan stainless - steel markets increased to 909,000 tons in October, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, indicating that demand is lower than expected [7]. - Supply: Overseas goods are arriving at ports, and domestic stainless - steel production in October has increased, intensifying the cautious wait - and - see sentiment of enterprises. - Cost: The supply disturbance of nickel ore from Indonesia has weakened. The procurement of nickel ore for new HPAL projects in 2026 has started, and the domestic pure - nickel social inventory has accumulated to about 43,600 tons in October, indicating sufficient supply for smelters [8]. - Overseas Macroeconomy: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas, and the improvement of downstream consumption needs to be continuously tracked [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures market may continue to oscillate in the short term. Policy expectations and the performance of the "Silver October" demand side are the key factors to break the range. The risk of a callback due to intensified industrial negative feedback should be watched out for [9].
不锈钢期货日报-20251021
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-10-21 07:33