铜日报：宏观忧虑悬而未决，联手矿难共同支撑铜价高位-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [6][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of SHFE's main copper contract closed at 85,530 yuan/ton on October 20, showing an upward trend. The LME copper price dropped to $10,611/ton on October 17. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened from -$11.16/ton to -$16.83/ton, indicating increased overseas spot supply pressure [1] - From October 14 to 20, LME copper inventory decreased by 3,090 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 7.0%, with the overseas destocking speed accelerating. SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, remaining stable overall [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: Overseas mine disruptions continued. MMG's Las Bambas mine in Peru lost about 90,000 tons of copper resources due to illegal mining. Zijin Mining's third - quarter mineral copper output decreased by 6% quarter - on - quarter, tightening short - term supply. Although the import of recycled copper raw materials continued to grow, the import of anode copper decreased by 32.84% year - on - year, and there were still structural contradictions in refined copper supply [3] - Demand Side: Domestic demand was differentiated. The import of copper foil in the power sector increased by 7.28% year - on - year, and the import of copper alloys increased by 12.37% month - on - month. However, the export of copper enameled wire to the US and Indonesia declined year - on - year, showing weak demand in some overseas markets. The spot market was suppressed by high copper prices, and the concentrated arrival of imported copper further restricted the premium space [4] - Inventory Side: Global visible inventory continued the destocking trend. LME inventory dropped to 41,319 tons, a three - month low. Domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased but remained at a high level of 137,000 tons. The increase in the arrival of imported copper may put pressure on subsequent inventory. The increase in the import of recycled copper raw materials may ease the supply gap of refined copper to some extent [5] 3.1.3 Market Summary - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 20, the price of SMM's 1 copper was 85,990 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.24% compared to October 14. The price of SHFE was 85,530 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.05%. The LME price on October 17 was $10,611/ton [8] - The premium of premium copper remained stable at 95 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 16.67% to 35 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper increased by 12.50% to - 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened [8] - From October 14 to 20, LME inventory decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 3.57%. SHFE inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, a decrease of 0.04%. COMEX inventory data on October 17 was 345,581 short tons [8] 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14] 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The SHFE main contract price increased slightly, while the LME price decreased slightly. The basis weakened, indicating increased spot pressure. LME inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory decreased slightly and COMEX inventory increased slightly [34][35] - On the supply side, the decrease in Zijin Mining's third - quarter output and the loss of copper in MMG's Peruvian mine may affect supply. Although anode copper imports decreased, recycled copper imports increased, showing diversified supply [35] - On the demand side, copper foil and copper alloy imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Copper enameled wire exports to the US and Indonesia were weak. The domestic spot market was suppressed by high prices [35] - Overall inventory pressure was not large, but attention should be paid to subsequent imports. Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [35][36]