Core Insights - The market sentiment has shown structural changes this week, with US stocks strengthening while the Hong Kong market adjusted downwards. The MSCI global index rose by 1.20%, with significant gains in US indices: Dow Jones up 1.56%, S&P 500 up 1.70%, and Nasdaq up 2.14% [2][14] - The US economic data release has been delayed due to the federal government shutdown, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market now anticipates a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting [2][5] - Trump's fluctuating stance on tariffs against China continues to create uncertainty, with potential impacts on the US economy. Upcoming trade talks between the US and China are expected to take place in the coming weeks [2][6] Economic Fundamentals - The delay in US economic data releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment statistics, is attributed to the government shutdown. This has heightened market expectations for a more aggressive monetary policy response from the Federal Reserve [5][6] - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have intensified, with Trump threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, although he later indicated that such a strategy may not be sustainable [6][8] Market Performance - The US stock market has experienced a broad rally, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Russell 2000 pure value index rose by 2.5%, while major indices like the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 saw increases of 1.6%, 2.1%, and 1.7% respectively [25][32] - In contrast, the Hong Kong market faced significant declines, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 8.0% and other indices such as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Index falling by 3.7% and 4.0% respectively [2][41] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, particularly in AI, internet, and semiconductor industries. Additionally, sectors expected to improve include renewable energy, building materials, and traditional cyclical industries [2][6] - The consumer sector is also poised to benefit from domestic policy support and shifts in consumer spending patterns, indicating potential investment opportunities in new consumption areas [2][6]