宏观经济宏观月报：9月经济“预期之中”与“意料之外”-20251021

Economic Growth Insights - The median and arithmetic average of Q3 GDP growth predictions from 12 institutions were 4.8% and 4.76% respectively, indicating a general expectation of economic performance[1] - Fixed asset investment, particularly in real estate, saw a significant decline from -12.9% at the end of June to -21.2% by the end of September, contributing to a 9.8 percentage point contraction year-on-year[1] - Infrastructure investment dropped from 5.3% to -8.1%, suggesting a substantial drag on GDP growth, estimated at about 0.7 percentage points[1] Policy and Investment Trends - The decreasing importance of real estate and infrastructure investment in national economic statistics suggests a potential shift in policy focus towards "investment in people"[2] - The "anti-involution" initiative, initially expected to gain traction in Q3, appears to have been sidelined in favor of boosting production amid economic pressures[2] - The PMI data indicated a widening gap between production and new orders, expanding by 0.9 percentage points to 1.1%[2] External Trade Dynamics - September's foreign trade performance exceeded expectations, with exports rising by 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards emerging markets in the Global South[3] - The reliance on the U.S. market has decreased, with direct exports to the U.S. dropping to approximately 9%, while exports to Africa surged by 56%[3] - High-value industrial products, such as ships and integrated circuits, have become key drivers of China's export strength[3] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see a focus on utilizing existing policies, with over 1 trillion yuan in excess fiscal deposits available for economic support[3] - The potential for a stable economic performance in Q4 is bolstered by the anticipated operational window from the central bank in November[3] - Risks include a potential reduction in policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[3]