氧化铝减产，烧碱承压下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is affected by alumina production cuts, with the main contract of caustic soda falling 4.37% to 2,344 yuan/ton today [1]. - In the short - term, upstream maintenance of caustic soda is frequent in mid - October, supply pressure eases, and caustic soda spot stabilizes. In the medium - term, supply and demand of caustic soda both increase, and the spot may be in a volatile state [2]. - Looking ahead, supply and demand of caustic soda will both increase, the futures market may enter a wide - range oscillation, and it is advisable to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Caustic soda production starts low and then rises. In mid - October, there are many maintenance activities, and caustic soda production decreases month - on - month; from November to December, there is less maintenance, and production tends to increase. New capacity is concentrated in Q3, and there are still 250,000 tons of capacity to be put into production in Hebei in Q4 [2]. Demand - Alumina production cuts and new production coexist, non - aluminum industry is about to enter the off - season, and exports are average. Specifically: 1) Alumina operating capacity has reached a high level, industry profits are poor, and marginal plants have started to cut production recently; 2) Wenfeng's procurement eases the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but Weiqiao's caustic soda receipts are equal to daily consumption, inventory is high, and the purchase price may remain stable; 3) The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in 2026 will boost caustic soda demand, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; 4) Non - aluminum operating rate is stable, restocking willingness is low, and the operating rate will weaken from November to December. There are no large export orders heard [2]. Valuation - Valuing liquid chlorine at 0 yuan/ton, the comprehensive cost of caustic soda is about 2,250 yuan/ton. The probability of liquid chlorine price decline is high, and the cost center of caustic soda is expected to move up [2].