有色金属周报：铜：中美关税谈判的不确定性扰动铜价上涨节奏-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations has disrupted the upward rhythm of copper prices. Due to the expected future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, along with production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions after the price pullback, and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread and Inventory Situation - Spread Situation: The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is also positive and reasonable. The LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and reasonable, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and reasonable. The spreads between LME copper and Shanghai copper, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper are positive and reasonable, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and reasonable. It is recommended that investors temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities in these spreads [9][10][12]. - Inventory Situation: The closure of the import window may limit domestic electrolytic copper imports, leading to an increase in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas and social inventory compared to last week. The LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased, while the COMEX copper inventory increased. The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [19][22]. 3.2 Mid - upstream Supply Situation - Copper Concentrate: The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may reduce copper production in 2026. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and decreased compared to last week, and the port copper concentrate inventory in China increased [29]. - Scrap Copper: The restriction on high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the positive spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase domestic scrap copper production in October but reduce imports, resulting in a tight supply - demand expectation [32]. - Blister Copper: The production and import of domestic blister copper in October may decrease month - on - month due to the ignition of the smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry and the increase in the maintenance capacity of domestic smelters [33]. - Electrolytic Copper: The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in October may decrease month - on - month due to factors such as production cuts in Congo - Kinshasa, maintenance in Japan, and production resumption in Indonesia [40]. 3.3 Downstream Demand Situation - Copper Rod: The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined and recycled copper rods increased compared to last week. The processing fees of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased [44][46]. - Copper Wire and Cable: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventories decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [56][63]. - Copper Enameled Wire: The order volume and capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper enameled wire increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [60][63]. - Copper Plate and Strip: The processing fees of Chinese brass plate and strip increased, and the capacity utilization rate and production of copper plate and strip samples increased compared to last week. The raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [65][71][73]. - Copper Foil: The processing fees of Chinese lithium - ion (HTE) copper foil were flat or increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil in October may increase month - on - month [67][73]. - Copper Tube: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tube samples increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may decrease month - on - month [75][80]. - Brass Rod: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese brass rod samples increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may decrease month - on - month [77][80].