Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-21 08:32Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate industry may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster than supply and inventory depletion in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 150,100 hands, up 5 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 310,199 hands, up 171,765 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 380 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 29,892 hands/ton, down 813 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,880 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 880 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,520 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,723 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1%; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 85,000 yuan/ton, up 35,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, up 15,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 135,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 59%, up 2%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.09%, up 0.55%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year is 1.758 million vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 18.69%, down 1.17%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 32.46%, down 0.85% [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 103,607 contracts, up 9,728 contracts; the total put position is 38,261 contracts, up 2,829 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 36.93%, down 0.8132%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.31%, down 0.0002% [2]. Industry News - In the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. As of the end of September, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 18.063 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.5%. In September, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The current external environment is more complex and severe, and the task of stabilizing growth in the industry remains arduous [2].