Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-21 08:26Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the JM2601 contract closed at 1177.0, down 3.49%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The mine operating rate and coal washery operating rate rebounded. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and inventory is expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On October 21, the J2601 contract closed at 1672.0, down 2.743%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The iron - water output was in high - level oscillation, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1177.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1672.00 yuan/ton, down 38.00. JM期货合约持仓量 was 828825.00 hands, down 22315.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 47556.00 hands, down 1245.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 3800.00 hands, up 346.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 73.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 200.00, unchanged; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 2050.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian 5 raw coal was 1051.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported primary coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur primary coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal from Inner Mongolia Wuhai was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washeries was 26.10 million tons per day, up 0.40; the refined coal inventory was 290.40 million tons per week, up 10.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.36%, up 0.01 [2]. - The monthly raw coal output was 41151.00 million tons, up 2101.30; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 196.10 million tons, up 12.20 [2]. Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 997.37 million tons per week, up 38.31; the total inventory of coke was 57.29 million tons per week, down 6.55. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 million tons per week, up 7.19; the coke inventory was 639.44 million tons per week, down 11.38 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.90 days per week, up 0.24; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.19 days per week, down 0.23. The monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4256.00 million tons, down 3.70; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.25%, unchanged; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of crude steel was 7349.00 million tons, down 387.86 [2]. Industry News - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In September, the housing prices in 70 cities declined month - on - month, with all second - hand housing prices falling and 63 new housing prices falling. The decline in new housing prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, except for Beijing [2]. - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In September, the total import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2].