Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - data in September were mixed, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The domestic economic recovery couldn't be achieved overnight, and the economy showed a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. Macroeconomic policies should increase support to boost market confidence. "Promoting domestic demand and combating involution" would be important long - term policy focuses. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and in 2025, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month but Remained Below the Threshold - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the 5 sub - indexes, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry's was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the manufacturing was still below the threshold, indicating low prosperity, significant demand contraction, and insufficient economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. In September, CPI Declined 0.3% Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 2.9% Year - on - Year, Both Showing Improvement - In September 2025, the national CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to September was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year and increased 0.7% month - on - month [8][9]. - In September, the national PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The average PPI from January to September was 2.8% lower than the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI [11]. 3. In September, Imports and Exports Maintained High Growth Rates - In September, China's total import and export volume was $566.68 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. Exports were $328.57 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports were $238.12 billion, up 7.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was $90.45 billion, an increase of $8.69 billion compared to the same period last year [13]. - In terms of countries, in September, China's exports to the US were $34.308 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 16.1%; exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%; exports to ASEAN countries were $58.235 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year; and exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN were gradually replacing those to the US [15]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. In 2025, exports were likely to remain strong. The real risk for China's foreign trade was the potential decline in demand due to the increased risk of a US economic recession and the slowdown of the global economy [16]. 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and the Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Further Increased - At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year - on - year. The balance of foreign - currency loans to the real economy was 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% year - on - year [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, 851.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [18]. - In terms of residents' credit in September, short - term loans increased by 142.1 billion yuan, 127.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 250 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of enterprises' credit, short - term loans increased by 710 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan more than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 910 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan less than the same period last year; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, 471.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [19][21]. - At the end of September, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 1.2%, indicating an improvement in macro - liquidity [22]. 5. Industrial Production Accelerated, while Consumption and Investment Growth Rates Continued to Decline - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [25]. - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The consumption growth rate further declined in September, affected by policies and subsidy withdrawal, as well as the drop in oil prices [25][26]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [28]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real - Estate Sales Continued to Decline and was Moving Towards Stabilization - From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6,304 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In September, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline, and the real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage [30]. - From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new - construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [32]. - In September, the real - estate market continued the downward trend since the second and third quarters. However, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing was narrowing, and the inventory - reduction effect was emerging. The real - estate market was moving towards stabilization. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing would further narrow as the base decreased [34]. - At the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing was 759.28 million square meters, 2.41 million square meters less than at the end of August. The real - estate development climate index in September was 92.78, showing a slight decline month - on - month. There was still room for further strengthening of real - estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging. The first half of 2026 was expected to be a critical period for the real - estate market to stabilize [35][36][37].
9月宏观数据分析：9月数据有喜有忧，PPI、M1增速持续回升
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-10-21 08:23