中美贸易争端笼罩下，油脂走势何去何从？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the macro - risk is partially reduced but still exists, waiting for the outcome of the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the three major oils are in a state of mixed long and short positions, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak but with limited downside space [1][29]. - In the medium to long term, palm oil is expected to show a strong trend after November. For soybean oil, the price should be treated with cautious optimism. For rapeseed oil, the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the biggest uncertainty [2][30]. - For the strategy, focus on the performance of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts in the ranges of 8150 - 8400, 9200 - 9600, and 9800 - 10000 respectively, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [2][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - Short - term situation: MPOB's September report was unexpectedly bearish, and October's high - frequency data showed continued production growth. The export demand of Malaysian palm oil weakened in the second half of October, causing the inventory to rise. However, the inventory accumulation period is coming to an end, and there are uncertainties in Indonesia's production and the progress of B50 is ahead of schedule, so the price trend in October is expected to have limited fluctuations and strengthen towards the end of the production season [5]. - Malaysian situation: MPOB's September report showed that the inventory reached a five - year high of 236000 tons. SPPOMA data indicated a 6.86% increase in production from October 1 - 15. ITS data showed that the export growth rate decreased in the second half of October. The inventory is expected to continue rising in October, but the inventory accumulation time is limited due to the upcoming traditional production - reduction season [6]. - Indonesian situation: In July, the inventory was at a relatively low level of 2.57 million tons. There are concerns about production decline due to the takeover of illegal plantations. The B50 biodiesel has completed non - road tests, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for palm oil by 3 - 4 million tons. The inventory in 2025 is expected to maintain a tight balance [9]. - Domestic situation: Due to pre - National Day stocking, palm oil stocks decreased slightly in September. The estimated arrivals in October and November are 230000 and 190000 tons respectively. After the National Day stocking, the inventory rebounded. As of October 17, the inventory was 575700 tons, and the short - term de - stocking is expected to be limited [11]. - Medium - to - long - term outlook: After November, the traditional production - reduction season begins in Southeast Asia. The La Nina phenomenon may intensify the production decline. The B50 - related positive news will continue to be released, and Indonesia may restrict exports. The domestic palm oil purchases after November are relatively low, and the de - stocking power increases during the peak season, which is conducive to the price increase in the fourth quarter [14]. Soybean Oil - Short - term situation: The market hopes for an improvement in US soybean export demand due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and the USDA's communication with South American countries. However, it is too early to conclude that the Sino - US trade dispute is resolved. The current export demand for US soybeans is still weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean oil supply in China is abundant. The short - term rebound of soybean oil is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [15]. - US soybean situation: In terms of production, the probability of a decrease in yield is high due to the drought in the main production areas. In terms of demand, the US soybean crushing volume in September reached a record high, but the export progress in the 25/26 season is far behind. The short - term rebound of US soybean 01 contract is limited, with the upper pressure level at 1050 - 1070 [16]. - South American situation: As of October 11, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season is relatively fast. Although the La Nina phenomenon exists, there is currently no short - term weather risk in the main production areas [20]. - Domestic situation: Since May, China's soybean arrivals have been above 10 million tons for five consecutive months, and the oil mills have maintained a high operating rate. As of October 17, the domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are at historical highs. The soybean arrivals from November to January are expected to be at normal levels, and the supply in the fourth quarter is not short [22]. - Medium - to - long - term outlook: There are potential positive factors such as an improvement in US soybean export demand, the implementation of US bio - fuel policies, a decrease in US soybean production, South American weather speculation, and a supply gap in the first quarter of 2026. The medium - to - long - term trend of soybean oil is cautiously optimistic [24]. Rapeseed Oil - Policy impact: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the main factor affecting the domestic rapeseed oil market. Since August, the import of Canadian rapeseed has been severely restricted, resulting in a significant decline in domestic rapeseed arrivals. The supply shortage before November is difficult to solve, and the supply situation may be partially alleviated after November, but the supply - demand tension remains [25][26]. - Risk factor: There is room for policy softening in Canada due to the high inventory and low price of rapeseed. The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China did not bring a breakthrough, and the short - term import of Canadian rapeseed remains restricted. The follow - up situation depends on the development of Sino - Canadian relations and the relaxation of processing restrictions on Australian rapeseed [27].