内需走弱，结构优化

Overseas Macro - Emerging market manufacturing is recovering, with the global manufacturing PMI at 50.8 in September, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from August, but still above the expansion threshold[5] - The US consumer confidence index has dropped for three consecutive months, indicating weakening consumer expectations and potential pressure on future demand[7] - European inflation has risen again, with the EU CPI and core CPI both increasing by 2.6% year-on-year in September, reflecting the impact of US tariff policies on prices[9] Domestic Macro - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, with a cumulative growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters, showing strong resilience overall[12] - External demand remains strong while internal demand is weak, with consumption contributing 2.7 percentage points, investment 0.9 percentage points, and net exports 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth[13] - Fixed asset investment fell by 6.8% year-on-year in September, with manufacturing investment down by 1.9% and real estate investment down by 21.2%[17] Policy Outlook - Uncertainty remains, with signs of monetary and fiscal easing emerging; the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%–4.25% in September[27] - China's policy is expected to continue as planned, focusing on targeted fiscal measures and a more neutral monetary stance in Q4[33] Asset Performance - Precious metals surged, with gold spot prices rising by 14.8% and silver by 31.1%, both reaching historical highs due to Fed rate cuts and trade tensions[34] - The Chinese stock market adjusted due to increased trade negotiation risks, despite a generally positive global market response to Fed easing[34]