银河期货花生日报-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and the peanut futures will continue to fluctuate strongly. The 01 peanut contract will still fluctuate strongly. The new - season peanut production is expected to be the same as last year, and the planting cost has decreased. Some peanuts have started to be listed [5][11]. - The prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is acceptable [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - Futures Market: PK604 closed at 7982, down 62 (-0.78%), with a trading volume increase of 139.87% to 367 and an open interest decrease of 2.37% to 1,357; PK601 closed at 7880, down 78 (-0.99%), with a trading volume increase of 1.68% to 102,358 and an open interest increase of 0.14% to 199,817. PK510 had no valid data [3]. - Spot Market: In Henan Nanyang, the peanut price was 8800; in Shandong Jining and Linyi, it was 8400. The prices of imported Sudanese rice and Senegalese rice were 8500 and 7800 respectively. The price of peanut oil was 14580, and the price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao was 8540. The prices of all these remained unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of Henan Nanyang peanuts was 920, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 520. The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 102, down 16 [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut Price: In the Northeast, the price of peanuts was relatively strong, with the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin rising to 4.15 yuan/jin and that in Changtu, Liaoning rising to 4.2 yuan/jin. In Henan, the price was stable, with the price of Baisha common peanuts at 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin. The prices of imported peanuts were also stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively strong in the short - term [5]. - Peanut Oil and By - products: Some peanut oil mills started to purchase today. The mainstream transaction price before suspension of purchase was 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills was 7920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The price of by - product peanut meal was relatively weak in the short - term [5][9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trading: For 01 and 05 peanuts in low - level oscillations, light - position short - term long positions can be considered [12]. - Spread Trading: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [13]. - Options Trading: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - There are six charts showing the historical price trends of Shandong peanut spot, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot - futures basis, and spreads between different peanut contracts, with data from 2022 - 2025 [16][19][24][27]