胶版印刷纸周报-20251021

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the off - season, the factory ex - factory price of offset printing paper is lowered, and the market has just - needed transactions. Chenming's resumption of production may lead to an oversupply of supply, with a weak fundamental operation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Raw material prices are at a relatively low level, and the cost reduction space is limited, but the finished product price is difficult to rise in the off - season, so the production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner [8][12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: In the week of October 17, 2025, Jiulong Paper's Beihai base PM55 high - grade cultural paper production line was successfully put into operation. The production and start - up of double - offset paper increased. The monthly import volume decreased by 0.79 tons compared with the previous month, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 1.7 tons. The monthly export volume decreased by 0.08 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 2.89 tons. Due to the increase in production and stable demand, the inventory is expected to accumulate. For example, the enterprise inventory increased by 1.5 tons [6]. - Price: The ex - factory delivery prices of various brands decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, and the market self - pick - up prices of some brands remained unchanged. The disk price of OP2601 decreased by 24, and OP2603 decreased by 18. It is expected that the double - offset paper price will fluctuate or slightly decrease, and the disk will operate weakly [8]. - Spread and Basis: The disk spread is low in position, mainly for observation. The basis is expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The disk spread between January and March is expected to remain stable, and the basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - Cost and Profit: Raw material prices are at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost reduction space is limited. However, the finished product price is difficult to rise in the off - season, so the production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For example, the profit of self - used pulp decreased by 92.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the off - season, the factory ex - factory price is lowered, and the market has just - needed transactions. The disk is expected to operate weakly, and it is recommended to use a light - position short - put strategy or a short - call strategy when it rebounds, while paying attention to risk prevention and control [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the cumulative import volume, production volume, total supply, total demand, and inventory of offset printing paper all showed certain changes. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain growth rate, while the production volume and total supply decreased year - on - year, and the total demand also decreased slightly. The inventory increased year - on - year in most months [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - Production Situation: In 2025, many companies have new production capacity put into operation or resume production. For example, Jiulong Paper has multiple production lines put into operation in different locations, and Chenming is expected to resume production of about 900,000 tons of double - offset paper capacity. From 2025 - 2026, some projects are planned to be put into operation, but some are suspended [18]. - Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export: No specific analysis content is provided in the given text. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - Raw Material Cost: The prices of raw materials such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish are at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost will remain stable or slightly increase [12]. - Profit: The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, and the profit of low - cost and high - cost production is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - Spot Quotation: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of various brands of offset printing paper decreased compared with the previous period [8]. - Spot - Futures Basis and OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread: The disk spread is low in position, mainly for observation. The basis is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the inter - month spread between January and March is expected to remain stable [10].