银河期货苹果日报-20251021

Report Overview - Report Type: Agricultural Product Daily Report - Research Date: October 21, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The late - maturing Fuji apple is expected to have a low premium fruit rate due to small fruit diameters in some areas of Shaanxi and water - crack problems caused by continuous rainfall. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is also high. Therefore, the futures price is expected to remain in a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the next - working - day price. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.08, up 0.08. Prices of some apple varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bag 80, and Yiyuan paper - bag 70 remained unchanged [3]. - Futures Prices: AP01 was 8850, down 15 from yesterday's close; AP05 was 9309, down 15; AP10 was 9377, up 23. The spreads AP01 - AP05 remained unchanged at - 459, AP05 - AP10 increased by 8 to - 75, and AP10 - AP01 decreased by 8 [3]. - Basis: Data for the basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts were not available [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from the previous week [6]. - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 6.84 tons, a 27.6% increase from the previous month but a 17.6% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to August 2025 was about 53.27 tons, a 7.7% decrease year - on - year. The import volume in August 2025 was 1.18 tons, a 33.3% decrease from the previous month and a 15.3% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August 2025 was 9.84 tons, a 22% increase year - on - year [6]. - The trading price of apples in the origin was stable. In Shandong, there was a small amount of high - quality apple procurement, and the supply and tradable volume were average. In the northwest, the enthusiasm for ordering high - quality apples was high, but the procurement of average - quality apples was cautious. The market arrival volume was small, and the sales speed and price were stable [7]. - The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - The ordering price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the acquisition of new - season apples had just started with a small volume, and the prices varied greatly according to quality [8]. - Trading Logic: Due to small fruit diameters in some areas of Shaanxi and water - crack problems caused by continuous rainfall, the premium fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low. The opening price and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts are high, so the futures price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [9]. - Trading Strategies - Single - side: The apple futures price is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term due to the expected low premium fruit rate [10]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related charts, such as the price chart of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price chart of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 apples, and the chart of the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao [14][24][30].