南华原木产业风险管理日报：趋势向上，月差继续走弱-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the log market is upward, but the monthly spread continues to weaken. The 01 contract is trading based on expectations related to special port charges for log vessels. If the charges are implemented, it may lead to potential price increases or supply reductions. The monthly spread between 11 - 01 contracts has reached a new low and may continue to weaken. [1][6][8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4%. [2] Hedging Strategies - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2511) at 820 - 830 yuan/m³ with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2511) at 780 - 800 yuan/m³ with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. [2] Market Conditions - Futures: lg2511 closed at 803 (+1), and lg2601 closed at 838 (+3.5) with a position of 17,000 lots. - Spot: The spot price remained unchanged. - Valuation: The warehouse receipt cost is about 831 yuan/m³ in the Yangtze River Delta and 836 yuan/m³ in Shandong. - Inventory: As of October 10th, the national inventory was 2.99 million m³ (+130,000). [5][6] Core Contradiction - The 01 contract is trading on expectations based on special port charges for log vessels. If implemented, it may lead to higher CFR quotes or supply reductions. However, the policy's stability is uncertain, and the delivery logic may lead to a discounted delivery state. [6] Monthly Spread Analysis - The monthly spread between 11 - 01 contracts closed at - 34.5, a new low. It may continue to weaken as it may not be considered absolutely safe. [8] Strategies - Implement a covered call strategy for the 01 contract. Establish additional short positions of 1/3 of lg2601c850 and 2/3 of lg2601C875 corresponding to the total long positions. Also, set dynamic stop - profit orders for long positions in the 01 contract. [9] Data Overview - Supply: Radiation pine imports in August 2025 were 1.3 million m³ (- 100,000 m³ compared to the previous period, - 3.7% year - on - year). - Inventory: As of October 17th, the national port inventory was 2.92 million m³ (- 70,000 m³ compared to the previous period, + 22.2% year - on - year), with 1.846 million m³ in Shandong ports (- 46,000 m³ compared to the previous period, + 78.7% year - on - year) and 887,310 m³ in Jiangsu ports (+ 6,410 m³ compared to the previous period, - 9.5% year - on - year). The daily average outbound volume from log ports was 63,200 m³ (+ 5,900 m³ compared to the previous period, - 9.5% year - on - year). - Demand: The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 34,200 m³ (- 200 m³ compared to the previous period, - 5.5% year - on - year), and in Jiangsu was 24,200 m³ (+ 6,300 m³ compared to the previous period, - 8.3% year - on - year). - Profit: The import profit of radiation pine on October 24th was - 64 yuan/m³, and that of spruce was - 118 yuan/m³ (- 3 yuan/m³ compared to the previous period). [11] Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Seasonal factors in New Zealand increase the proportion of integrated timber and decrease the proportion of sawn timber. Potential increases in import costs due to shipping surcharges. Relatively low inventory levels. - Negative factors: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products. Reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products from non - mainstream delivery warehouses. [12]