Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-21 09:31Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Price Forecast - Monthly price range forecast for coking coal: 1100 - 1300, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 37.69%, and historical percentile of current volatility is 71.79% [3] - Monthly price range forecast for coke: 1550 - 1800, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 30.44%, and historical percentile of current volatility is 60.44% [3] Risk Management Strategies - Inventory hedging: For steel mills with shrinking profit margins and difficult price increases for coking enterprises, coking enterprises can short J2601 contract of coke, with suggested hedging ratios of 25% at (1780, 1830), 50% at (1830 - 1880), and 25% at (1150, 1180) [3] - Procurement management: Due to repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine start - up rate, and factors such as over - production inspection and anti - involution in the fourth quarter affecting coking coal supply, coking plants can long JM2605 contract of coking coal, with suggested hedging ratios of 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipts - On October 21, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar were 151,396 tons, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 138,769 tons week - on - week; hot - rolled coils were 143,657 tons, a decrease of 2,375 tons from the previous day and an increase of 83,879 tons week - on - week; iron ore was 1,000 lots, a decrease of 200 lots from the previous day and an increase of 200 lots week - on - week; coking coal was 200 lots, unchanged from the previous day and week - on - week; coke was 2,050 lots, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 140 lots week - on - week; ferrosilicon was 11,400 sheets, a decrease of 703 sheets from the previous day and a decrease of 2,265 sheets week - on - week; ferromanganese was 46,638 sheets, a decrease of 998 sheets from the previous day and a decrease of 3,279 sheets week - on - week [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Coking Coal Market - The current coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern. Before the festival, there was overselling at the pithead, upstream inventory pressure is generally light, and miners have a strong willingness to hold prices. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port is also tightening, with customs clearance operations suspended during the National Day and low inventory in the supervision area. Market expectations for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session also support the coking coal futures price. However, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated marginally, steel mills' profitability is under pressure, and the black market shows a weak peak - season feature. The rebound space of coking coal is limited, with support at the bottom and negative feedback risk suppression at the top [4] Factors Affecting Coal and Coke Prices - Positive factors: In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the start - up rate of domestic mines has a theoretical upper limit, limiting the supply elasticity of coking coal. In 2026, as the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the long - term market expectations have improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal and coke prices [4][6] - Negative factors: In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished products is large, the peak - season feature is not obvious, and the real - end of steel still has pressure. If the contradiction of finished products cannot be effectively resolved and the profitability of steel mills continues to deteriorate, it may trigger the negative feedback risk of the black industry chain [7] Group 5: Price Data Coking Coal Futures - On October 21, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian No. 5) was 1200, the main - contract basis was 22.5, with a daily increase of 39.0 and a weekly decrease of 23.5; the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (port Mongolian No. 5) was 1317, the main - contract basis was 140.3, with a daily increase of 39.0 and a weekly increase of 59.5; etc. [8] Coke Futures - On October 21, 2025, the coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched coke) was 1626, the main - contract basis was - 45.6, with a daily increase of 38.0 and a weekly increase of 14.8; the coke warehouse receipt cost (Jinzhong wet - quenched coke for port delivery) was 1622, the main - contract basis was - 50.0, with a daily increase of 38.0 and a weekly decrease of 17.5; etc. [8] Coking Coal and Coke Spot - On October 21, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 1115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 73 yuan/ton week - on - week; etc. [9] - The ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and week - on - week; the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and week - on - week; etc. [10] Other Price - related Data - The spot - to - futures price difference of coking coal and coke, the ratio of coking coal to power coal, and the import and export profits of coking coal and coke also have corresponding data changes [8][9][10]