策略观点：积跬步，行稳致远-20251021

Market Performance Review - The recent market performance shows a pulse-like adjustment post-holiday, with the A-share market closing at 3883 points before the holiday and breaking through 3900 points before starting to adjust. On October 17, the market experienced its largest single-day decline since late August, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 dropping 1.95% and 2.26% respectively [4][7][25] - In the short term, there is a clear shift in style, with growth stocks leading in August with an overall increase of over 10%, while small-cap growth and national index growth fell by 6.28% and 5.96% respectively in October, indicating a reversal in the previously lagging value style [4][10][20] A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter the second phase of a bull market, with a focus on technology as the main line. The current market resembles the 1999 bull market, driven by policy and cyclical patterns. The technology sector is expected to lead earnings recovery, which will drive structural market performance [4][35] - The valuation of growth stocks is under scrutiny, with liquidity being a core driver of the bull market. Current valuations for technology stocks have not yet reached a 15% overvaluation threshold, suggesting continued focus on AI applications in the coming year [4][35] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to benefit from enhanced pricing power of Chinese companies and stable liquidity, with a focus on pharmaceuticals and e-commerce as new catalysts. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw significant fluctuations, with the latter experiencing a decline of over 10% in October after a 13.9% increase in September [4][25][28] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with innovative drug companies performing well despite overall market adjustments. The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to provide a boost to the e-commerce sector [4][25][28]