9月经济数据点评：经济分化加大，稳预期需加力

Economic Growth Perspective - In Q3, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.7%[5] - Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth (including retail, fixed investment, and exports) was 2.98%, resulting in a growth rate difference of 3.2%[5] - Export growth was 7.1%, compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed investment, leading to a difference of 5.18%[5] Consumer Spending Insights - The combined growth rate for travel and policy-driven replacement consumption was 8.6%, while essential consumption categories like food and clothing saw a growth rate of only 0.3%[5] - The consumer spending tendency in Q3 was 68.1%, down from 68.9% in the same period last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence[48] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was -6.6% in Q3, a significant drop from the previous value of 1.8%[43] - Equipment investment grew by 14%, contrasting with a -4.1% decline in construction investment, highlighting a shift towards new economic sectors[15] Market Expectations and Policy Recommendations - To stabilize market expectations, it is crucial to maintain confidence in long-term economic transformation and short-term price recovery, with a target Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet the annual goal[4] - The need for further reduction in mortgage rates is emphasized, as the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices was 3.93% while mortgage rates only decreased by 3 basis points[8] Employment and Labor Market - The total number of rural laborers working outside their home areas reached 19.187 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%[52] - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month[56]