塑料日报：震荡运行-20251021

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report predicts that plastics will experience a weak and volatile trend in the near future. Factors such as the signing of a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, OPEC+ planning to increase production in November, the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, and insufficient downstream purchasing willingness contribute to this prediction. Although the peak season of agricultural film may bring some support, the overall situation remains under pressure[1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - On October 21, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. Agricultural film entered the peak season, but the peak season was less than expected, and the post - National Day stocking demand weakened. New production capacity was put into operation, and the plastics operating rate decreased slightly. With concerns about economic growth and no actual anti - involution policies in the plastics industry, plastics are expected to oscillate weakly in the near future[1]. [期现行情] - Futures: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,830 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,915 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,883 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.38%. The position volume decreased by 135 lots to 561,965 lots[2]. - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,930 - 9,930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,260 - 8,090 yuan/ton[3]. [基本面跟踪] - Supply: On October 21, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level[1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. After the National Day, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories increased but were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years[1][4]. - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons, and on Tuesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 790,000 tons, 35,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years[1][4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $61 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780 per ton[4].