Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak, and it is mainly treated as a weak - side oscillation in the medium and long term. However, the recent decline in crude oil prices has increased, and the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the US may lead to greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily and pay attention to the progress of China - US trade negotiations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2 [1] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the inventory build - up of US crude oil exceeded expectations, and the de - stocking of refined oil also exceeded expectations. Overall oil product inventories have increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1] - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. Trump said that Modi promised that India would not buy oil from Russia, but it would take a process [1] - The European Commission passed a new draft of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting the crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel, but there is no secondary sanction for Russian buyers. The EU spokesman said that the European Commission will propose a plan to increase the import tariff on Russian oil in due course [1] - Due to the increased attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will extend the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year. Currently, Russia's crude oil exports remain at a high level [1] - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the IEA monthly report predicts that the global oil surplus will intensify [1] - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached between Palestine and Israel, and Trump will meet with Putin in Budapest, reducing geopolitical risks [1] - The EU sanctions plan has been introduced, the consumption peak season has ended, the US non - farm payrolls data is weak, and the uncertainty of China - US trade has worried the market about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, the crude oil exports in the Kurdistan region of Iraq have restarted, and exports in the Middle East have increased [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 0.32% to 437.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 431.8 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 440.2 yuan per ton, and an increase in open interest of 559 to 44,704 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3] - OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3] - IEA has lowered the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day. It has also raised the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, intensifying the oil supply surplus [3] Inventory and Production Data - On the early morning of October 17, US EIA data showed that for the week ending October 10, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in August was reduced by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September 2025 increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day in the week of October 10, setting a new historical high [4] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.85% increase compared with the same period last year, and the margin of being higher than the same period last year increased slightly [5] - Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% week - on - week to 8.455 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.713 million barrels per day, a 3.19% decrease compared with the same period last year [5] - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% week - on - week to 4.233 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.984 million barrels per day, a 0.19% increase compared with the same period last year. The decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 11.48% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5]
原油日报：原油震荡运行-20251021
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-21 10:04