螺纹热卷日报-20251021

1. Report Core View - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with a slightly stronger morning and a slight decline in the afternoon. Spot trading volume improved compared to yesterday. Last week's data showed that steel mills continued to cut production, but hot metal output remained high. Steel demand recovered due to temperature drops after the holiday, leading to an increase in the apparent demand of the five major steel products. However, hot-rolled coil production was high, and overall inventory continued to accumulate, though at a slower pace, while rebar inventory started to decline. Since after May Day, the black metal sector has been falling, with steel and iron ore leading the decline. The rising price of thermal coal due to cooler weather limited the decline of coking coal. The sector is under pressure from news and fundamentals, but low steel price valuations, profit contractions, and increased environmental protection efforts provide some support. The Fourth Plenary Session this week and the "15th Five-Year Plan" content may also affect market fluctuations. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9]. - The single - side trading of steel products is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage and the long position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. It is advisable to wait and see for options [10][11]. 2. Summary by Directory Market Information Rebar - Futures: For RB05, the price was 3104 yuan/ton today, up 3 yuan from yesterday; RB10 was 3144 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; RB01 was 3047 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The 05 - contract rebar's on - disk profit was - 143 yuan, up 18 yuan; the 10 - contract was - 116 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 01 - contract was - 167 yuan, up 15 yuan [3]. - Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cheapest deliverable was 3170 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of 66 yuan, a 10 - contract basis of 26 yuan, and a 01 - contract basis of 123 yuan. Regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and spot profits in different regions showed various changes, such as a 3 - yuan increase in Tangshan rebar profit and a 100 - yuan decrease in Shandong rebar profit [3]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures: HC05 was 3236 yuan/ton today, up 2 yuan; HC10 was 3267 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; HC01 was 3219 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil's on - disk profit was - 11 yuan, up 17 yuan; the 10 - contract was 7 yuan, up 8 yuan; the 01 - contract was 5 yuan, up 17 yuan [3]. - Spot: The price of Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cheapest deliverable was 3240 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of 4 yuan, a 10 - contract basis of - 27 yuan, and a 01 - contract basis of 21 yuan. Regional price differences were mostly stable, and spot profits in different regions also had some changes, like a 3 - yuan increase in Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit [3]. Market Judgement - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan, Beijing Jingye was 3100 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan [8]. - Trading Strategy: The black metal sector is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend on the single - side. It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage and the long position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, and wait and see for options. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9][10][11]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, on - disk profits, cash profits, and cost differences, including the price trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the basis of different contracts in Shanghai, the spreads between different contracts, the on - disk and cash profits of different products in different regions, and the cost differences of electric furnaces [23][25][28].