当前债市，买方谨慎，卖方乐观：债券研究周报-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From October 13th to October 20th, the sentiment of bond market sellers continued to rise, while that of buyers declined. Sellers' consensus further solidified after the market warmed up, but buyers remained cautious and still focused on potential downside risks [4]. - Sellers were generally bullish on the bond market, with sentiment rising compared to the period from September 29th to October 12th. Among 23卖方机构, 4% were bullish, 48% were moderately bullish, and 48% were neutral [5]. - Buyers' overall view was moderately bullish with a neutral bias, and the sentiment index decreased. Among 26固收买方机构, 35% were moderately bullish, 58% were neutral, and 7% were moderately bearish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From October 13th to October 20th, the tracked weighted index was 0.34, up 0.09 from September 29th - October 12th, and the proportion of bullish views increased. The untracked weighted index was 0.57, up 0.23 from the previous period. Currently, institutions are generally neutral - bullish, with 1 bullish, 11 moderately bullish, and 11 neutral [12]. - 4% of institutions were bullish, citing factors such as consumption subsidy overdraft of demand, declining bank liability costs, and trade frictions [12]. - 48% of institutions were moderately bullish, believing that Sino - US trade frictions were beneficial to the bond market, internal economic pressure strengthened the expectation of monetary easing, and capital flows sought safe - havens [12]. - 48% of institutions were neutral, stating that interest rates had partially reflected economic expectations, the uncertainty of new public fund sales regulations, limited downside in the bond market, and the balance between positive and negative factors [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From October 13th to October 20th, the tracked weighted sentiment index was 0.17, mainly neutral, down from September 29th - October 12th. The untracked weighted index was 0.27, down 0.21 from the previous period. Currently, institutions are generally neutral - bullish, with 9 moderately bullish, 15 neutral, and 2 moderately bearish [13]. - 35% of institutions were moderately bullish, driven by risk - aversion sentiment, supported by the easing cycle, and expecting the asset shortage pattern to continue [13]. - 58% of institutions were neutral, believing that positive and negative factors were balanced, and the market preferred technical corrections rather than fundamental - driven trends [13]. - 7% of institutions were moderately bearish, citing factors such as new fund sales regulations, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and Fed rate - cut constraints [13].