瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high inventory of urea enterprises exerts significant pressure on the urea market. The short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract is a price fluctuation between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. As the urea price drops below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers' enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, and they are advised to buy on dips. However, due to the weak market trading atmosphere and slow urea shipment, the probability of a further decrease in production is high, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1609 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 312,167 lots, down 10,020 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 40,924 lots, up 2,398 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,057 lots, down 181 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained stable. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, down 5.02 percentage points; the daily output is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 137 tons, up 57 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 24.18%, down 1.32 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 55.18%, down 10.29 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 65.15 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 466.18 tons, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week, a 11.88% increase. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week, a 7.47% increase. The production of Chinese urea enterprises was 132.05 tons, down 6.97 tons, a 5.01% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25 percentage points [2].