每日核心期货品种分析-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The performance of domestic futures contracts on October 21, 2025, was mixed. Some contracts like shipping container freight on the Europe route and precious metals showed significant gains, while others such as coking coal and coke declined. Different commodities have different market outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and geopolitical situations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - Price Changes: As of the close on October 21, shipping container freight on the Europe route rose over 5%, Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and rubber rose nearly 2%. Coking coal fell over 3% and coke fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, CSI 500 index futures (IC) rose 2.08%, etc. Among treasury bond futures, 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.16% [6][7]. - Fund Flows: As of 15:17 on October 21, funds flowed into CSI 500 2512 (2.453 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.412 billion), and SSE 50 2512 (1.179 billion). Funds flowed out of coking coal 2601 (735 million), Shanghai silver 2512 (288 million), and styrene 2511 (244 million) [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - Copper: Copper opened low and closed high with a strong intraday trend. Supply is tight due to inventory reduction and smelter maintenance. High prices are not well - accepted by downstream, but demand has rigid support. With the end of the peak season, the upward space is limited [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: It opened low and closed low with a weak intraday trend. It shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The production profit is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, the price is supported, but demand may decline next month [10][11]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the demand peak is over. The supply - demand situation is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, it will fluctuate weakly. With upcoming Sino - US trade talks, price volatility may increase [12]. - Asphalt: Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. With upcoming Sino - US trade talks and a strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [14]. - PP: Downstream开工率 is low, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pressure is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][17]. - Plastic: The开工率 is at a neutral level, and new production capacity has been added. The peak season demand is not as expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - PVC: Supply is still at a relatively high level, and export expectations are weak. Social inventory is high, and the pressure is large. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19][20]. - Coking Coal: It opened low and closed low with a weak trend. Supply is tight, and demand is affected by the profitability of coke enterprises. The peak season provides some support [21]. - Urea: The futures price opened low and closed high. The cost is rising, and demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak and stable [23].