银河期货铁合金日报-20251021

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On October 21, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5474, up 0.7% with a decrease of 11,015 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5746, up 0.14% with a decrease of 8,772 in open interest [6]. - For silicon ferroalloy, on the 21st, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness in some regions. The supply side saw a slight decline in recent production, but the maintenance amplitude was still low, and the absolute value of production was at a high level. The demand side was under pressure from the steel mills' production - cut expectations, but the low valuation level provided some support, so it was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - For manganese silicon, on the 21st, the manganese ore spot price was stable, and the manganese silicon spot price showed mixed trends. The supply side's operating rate increased instead of decreasing, and the absolute value was at a high level. The demand side faced a downward risk due to the downward - trending macro data and high steel inventories. The price was suppressed by demand above, and supported by the valuation level and low manganese ore inventories, so it would also fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - The trading strategies include: for single - side trading, expect bottom - level fluctuations as demand expectations are under pressure, but the valuation level and cost side provide support; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Information - Futures Data: The SF main contract had a closing price of 5474, a daily change of 38, a weekly change of 96, a trading volume of 178,926 (with a daily increase of 44,234), and an open interest of 208,602 (with a daily decrease of 11,015). The SM main contract had a closing price of 5746, a daily change of 8, a weekly change of 8, a trading volume of 160,346 (with a daily increase of 7,360), and an open interest of 369,062 (with a daily decrease of 8,772) [3]. - Spot Data: In the silicon ferroalloy spot market, prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5250, down 30 daily and unchanged weekly. In the manganese silicon spot market, the price of silicon manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5680, down 20 daily and up 30 weekly [3]. - Basis/Spread Data: The basis and spread data of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon also showed various changes. For example, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 224, with a daily change of - 68 and a weekly change of - 96 [3]. - Raw Material Data: The price of manganese ore in Tianjin was stable, with the price of Australian lumps at 39.2, unchanged daily and down 0.3 weekly. The price of semi - carbonates from South Africa was 34, unchanged daily and weekly [3]. Market Judgement - Trading Strategies: Single - side trading should expect bottom - level fluctuations; arbitrage should stay on the sidelines; options should sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. - Important Information: A large steel group in Hebei set the final price of manganese silicon in October at 5820 yuan/ton, slightly lower than market expectations and down 180 yuan/ton from September. On the 21st, the spot price of manganese ore at Tianjin Port was as follows: Australian lumps (Mn46%) were traded at 40.5 - 41 yuan/ton degree, South African lumps at around 34 yuan/ton degree, and Gabonese lumps at 39.7 - 40 yuan/ton degree [8]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon monthly spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Mysteel [11][12][13][15][17][19][21]