海康威视（002415）：经营持续改善，重视历史底部机遇

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in its operations, with a focus on profit-centric strategies leading to significant improvements in net profit and cash flow [7] - The company is positioned as a leader in the AIoT sector, with expectations for accelerated performance recovery and growth driven by national policies and digitalization [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 65.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, and a net profit of 9.319 billion yuan, up 14.94% year-on-year [7] - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 23.940 billion yuan, a 0.66% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.662 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.31% increase year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 45.67%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points year-on-year, driven by adjustments in domestic operations and product structure [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 94.894 billion yuan, 102.211 billion yuan, and 111.968 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.101 billion yuan, 15.749 billion yuan, and 17.765 billion yuan [7] - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 are 21.03, 18.83, and 16.69 respectively [7] Business Strategy and Innovations - The company has incubated eight innovative business directions, with revenue contributions increasing, particularly from sectors such as automotive, lithium battery, and logistics [7] - The company is actively adjusting its marketing strategies and increasing technological investments to promote the implementation of AI large model products [7] - The overseas business strategy is tailored to local needs, with strong demand in security, traffic management, and urban governance [7] Cash Distribution and Shareholder Returns - Over the past 12 months, the company has implemented cash dividends totaling 10.096 billion yuan and a buyback of 2.028 billion yuan, totaling 12.125 billion yuan [7] - The company plans to continue increasing the frequency and rate of dividends to create a virtuous cycle of performance growth and high dividends [7]