油料产业风险管理日报-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures market is that the US soybean market is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations. It will continue to fluctuate narrowly at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report's potential adjustment to the previous yield are to be followed. The soybean planting progress in Brazil is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop's yield. The upward space of the domestic soybean complex is restricted by the high inventory pressure in the near - term, and short - term sentiment trading is affected by China - US negotiations. - The current trading focus of the rapeseed meal futures market is that with limited arrivals of rapeseed raw materials in the future, inventory will show seasonal destocking. China - Canada negotiations affect market expectations, and it will mainly follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term. The timing of accelerating long positions depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.5% and a historical percentile of 34.2% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.3% and a historical percentile of 52.8% over three years [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs due to high protein inventory and concerns about price drops | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in case of price increases | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs due to concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal, the external US soybean market is export - demand - driven under China - US negotiations, with short - term USDA suspension and Brazilian planting progress to watch. The domestic market is restricted by high inventory and negotiation sentiment. - For rapeseed meal, with limited raw material arrivals, inventory will destock seasonally. It follows soybean meal in the short term, and the long - entry timing depends on warehouse receipts [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps. - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - In the near - term, the inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend after the resumption of oil mill crushing. - The warehouse receipt pressure of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure dominate the market. - The expectations of China - US and China - Canada negotiations have led to a weakening of the meal futures market [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2889 | - 6 | - 0.21% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2743 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2860 | 7 | 0.25% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2321 | - 29 | - 1.23% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2303 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2396 | 2 | 0.08% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1032.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1233 | 0.0067 | 0.09% | [7][9] 3.7 Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 159 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 45 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 117 | 0 | RM05 - 09 | - 89 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 42 | 0 | RM09 - 01 | 44 | 0 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2970 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 75 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2480 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 130 | - 44 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 490 | 0 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 545 | 0 | [10] 3.8 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4397.7754 | - 59.8076 | 0.005 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 4001.68 | 33.35 | 75.73 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 715.0854 | - 8.1371 | - 1.6835 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 590.0704 | - 59.8076 | - 7.1389 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 3.5993 | 8.8209 | - 0.9582 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 766 | - 26 | - 206 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1025 | - 29 | - 180 | [11]