国债期货日报：关注资本市场情绪-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. As long as the risk sentiment is not overly exuberant, the bond market will face little pressure. The market is currently waiting for the policy statements of the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of China-US trade negotiations, and it may remain volatile in the short term. Operators can continue to hold long positions at low levels, and those with empty positions can go long on dips [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated after the opening, declined briefly before the midday break, and then rebounded in the afternoon, with all varieties closing higher. Spot bond yields fluctuated, with medium and long-term yields declining. The capital market was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open market conducted 15.95 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 6.85 billion yuan [1] News - Trump stated at a White House press conference that he listed rare earth export controls, fentanyl control, and the resumption of soybean imports as the "three negotiation conditions" for China and hinted at the possibility of making tariff concessions in exchange for China's compromise [2] Market Analysis - Due to Trump's softened stance, the US stock market approached its previous high, and the A-share market continued to rebound today with increased trading volume. The bond market was initially affected but gradually shook off the influence of the stock market in the afternoon [3] Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 21 | 2025 - 10 - 20 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.362 | 102.336 | 0.026 | | TF2512 | 105.695 | 105.66 | 0.035 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 108.09 | 0.03 | | TL2512 | 115.49 | 115.41 | 0.08 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0144 | -0.0313 | 0.0169 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0262 | -0.0478 | 0.0216 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0253 | 0.009 | 0.0163 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2497 | 0.243 | 0.0067 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 77,402 | 75,809 | 1,593 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 156,544 | 154,552 | 1,992 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 265,904 | 262,611 | 3,293 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 183,244 | 181,782 | 1,462 | | TS Main Transaction (Lots) | 25,832 | 30,665 | -4,833 | | TF Main Transaction (Lots) | 45,116 | 54,788 | -9,672 | | T Main Transaction (Lots) | 76,221 | 76,613 | -392 | | TL Main Transaction (Lots) | 124,727 | 113,580 | 11,147 | [4]