南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices in the next month will focus on the resumption of production on the supply side and the restocking demand on the demand side. The supply of lithium salts will increase in October due to the capacity release of salt lakes. If the resumption of production at the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine exceeds market expectations, it will expand the supply scale and push the futures prices into a weak - oscillating channel. On the demand side, downstream lithium - battery material enterprises' demand is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the futures prices [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 72,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the lithium carbonate market. Positive factors include policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage, and possible overseas enterprises' rush - to - export sentiment. Negative factors include the planned resumption of the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine and the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Price and Volatility: The strong support level for the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 72,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.4% and a historical percentile of 14.9% over three years [2]. - Contract Data: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.37%) daily and 3,300 yuan (4.54%) weekly. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes [8]. - Spread Data: For example, LC2511 - LC2512 is - 340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (88.89%) and a weekly increase of 220 yuan (183.33%) [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average daily prices of different types of lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have different daily and weekly changes. For instance, lithium mica with Li2O:2 - 2.5% has an average price of 1,845 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (1.1%) daily and 120 yuan (6.96%) weekly [20]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different types of lithium hydroxide, have their own price changes. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.14%) daily and 1,100 yuan (1.55%) weekly [23]. - Lithium Industry Chain Spreads: The spreads between electric carbon and industrial carbon, electric hydrogen and electric carbon, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices have different changes [26]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract has its own historical trend. The brand - based basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers also vary, such as the basis of Tianqi Lithium being 300 yuan for the LC2507 contract [30][31]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 29,892, a decrease of 813 from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production Profit: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, has its own trends. The import profit of lithium carbonate also has a certain pattern [37][38]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - Procurement Management: For enterprises worried about rising procurement costs, they can use futures and options. For example, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with an 80% hedging ratio at 70,000 - 73,000 yuan and sell put options with a 20% hedging ratio [2]. - Sales Management: To prevent the reduction of sales profits due to price drops, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts and use option combinations, such as buying put options and selling call options [2]. - Inventory Management: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can short futures contracts with a 40% hedging ratio at 80,000 - 83,000 yuan and sell call options with a 20% hedging ratio [2].