Report Title - "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] Key Points 1. Market Review - Indonesia is accelerating the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026. The laboratory tests of B50 fuel were completed in August, and it will enter the road test stage. As of September 2025, the B40 policy is in full implementation. The biodiesel distribution target in 2025 is 15.6 million kiloliters, a significant increase from 13.4 million kiloliters in 2024. The government plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Based on B35 blending requirements, the corresponding crude palm oil demand is about 12.3 million tons, and for B40 it's about 14.3 million tons. If the B50 plan is implemented in 2026, the annual demand for palm oil - based biofuels will increase to 20.1 million kiloliters. Indonesia also plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax to 15% [4]. - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of key information such as USDA monthly supply - demand reports and export sales data. The government's subsidy policy for farmers is postponed, and the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain. A new round of Sino - US trade negotiations is upcoming [4]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons [6]. Demand - As of October 17, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 4,233 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,383 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,700 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12,920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,500 tons [7]. Inventory - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 575,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,100 tons, or 5.13% [8][20]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons, or 3.25% [8][27]. - The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, or 3.16% [8][29]. Cost and Profit - As of October 17, the FOB price of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia was $1,085 per ton; the CIF price was $1,106 per ton; the import cost was 9,425 yuan per ton; the hedging profit for the November shipment was - 115 yuan per ton, and for the December shipment was - 216 yuan per ton [9]. Production - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 15, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia increased by 5.76% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.86% month - on - month. From October 11 - 17, 3 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, 1 for November and 2 for December [10]. - As of October 17, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1616 million tons, the operating rate was 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [10][26]. Spot Price - As of October 17, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,560 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,160 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. Malaysia's Palm Oil - In September 2025, affected by rainfall, Malaysia's palm oil output was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%, but the output remained at a high level. The inventory in September was 2.361 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and at a high level year - on - year [14]. - In August, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.4276 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.21% [16]. India's Palm Oil Import - In September, due to Indian refineries switching to cheaper soybean oil, India's palm oil import volume dropped to a four - month low, while soybean oil imports reached a three - year high. The palm oil import volume was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 161,500 tons, or 16.31% [18]. China's Palm Oil - In September, China's palm oil import volume was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons [20]. - In September, the palm oil demand was 251,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 122,700 tons [21]. - As of October 17, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 115 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 54 yuan per ton [24]. China's Soybean Oil - As of October 17, the oil mill operating rate rebounded to 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [26]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons. In September, the soybean oil export volume was 51,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,300 tons [27]. China's Rapeseed Oil - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons, at a low level year - on - year. The rapeseed processing rate dropped to 3.2%, and the rapeseed crushing volume dropped to 12,000 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, and the inventory continued to decline [29]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: From October 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil output increased. Palm oil exports improved in early October. In September, India's palm oil imports dropped to a four - month low. Palm oil is entering the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Indonesia's biodiesel policy supports long - term demand. China's palm oil inventory increased, and it will fluctuate in the short term [31]. - Soybean oil: Brazil's soybean planting is going well. China has not purchased US soybeans. Due to the US government shutdown, key data is missing, and the biodiesel policy is uncertain. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September was still high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, the soybean oil output increased, and the inventory decreased but remained at a high level. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - US relations should be monitored [31]. - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada. There are expectations of improved Sino - Canadian relations, which put pressure on rapeseed oil prices. The domestic oil mill operating rate decreased, the rapeseed oil output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply should be monitored [31].
油脂周度行情观察-20251021
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-10-21 10:21