9月经济数据点评：新旧动能切换，债市依然承压

Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in economic momentum, with China's GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 declining to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2's 5.2%. However, the cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters remains at 5.2%, indicating that the annual target of 5.0% is likely achievable [3][4][6] - The report notes that while fixed asset investment has been a major drag on growth, new economic drivers are beginning to show effects, particularly through policies aimed at boosting consumption and production [3][6] - Consumer spending has continued to decline, with retail sales growth for January to September 2025 at 4.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The report suggests that ongoing policy support is necessary to stimulate consumer demand [3][29] Economic Data Summary - In September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained steady at 6.2%, with significant differentiation between real estate-related and non-real estate-related industries [3][6][12] - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising slightly to 0.1% month-on-month, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.3%. Core CPI has increased for five consecutive months, reaching 1.0% [3][9] - Fixed asset investment has entered negative territory for the first time since 2021, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -0.5% in September 2025. Real estate investment has seen a significant decline of -13.9% [3][12][20] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the bond market remains under pressure, with short-term fluctuations driven by U.S.-China trade news. The lack of strong interest rate cuts makes it difficult for the bond market to return to a "fundamentals + liquidity" pricing model [3][19] - The report suggests that while liquidity remains loose, the long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing increased volatility, recommending a reduction in duration exposure [3][19]