反弹空间受限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound space of copper prices is limited. Overseas interest rate cuts in October are a foregone conclusion, and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts and the US government shutdown has led to a pessimistic market outlook, suppressing the upward space of copper prices. Fundamentally, there is high resistance to high prices in the domestic market, but the domestic copper export window is open, reducing the pressure of inventory accumulation. It is the peak consumption season in October, providing fundamental support. The previous copper futures price has broken through the long - term oscillation range, and the market is mainly strong. However, as the peak season ends, demand support will weaken, and the upward space is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, with a strong intraday oscillation [1][4]. - Spot: On October 21, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 55 yuan/ton, and in South China was 65 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 10,610 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 29 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - As of October 15, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 40.8 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.08 cents/pound [8]. - Copper concentrate port inventory decreased this week, and is significantly lower than the same period last year. Smelters are still under maintenance, with low output levels. LME copper prices are rising, and smelters plan to ship copper spot to LME, which may further reduce the domestic circulation volume [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 37,700 tons, an increase of 1,383 tons from the previous period. As of October 20, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 108,700 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 137,200 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 346,600 short tons, an increase of 1,035 short tons from the previous period [11].