瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Newly harvested cotton in Xinjiang has faster picking and selling progress than last year, but recent cold and snowy weather in the production area will slow down the picking progress. The current mainstream price of new cotton is around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the cost still has overall support. The spinning mills' operating rate remains low, and the peak season continues to be weak. It is expected that the enthusiasm for restocking by spinning mills will be low in the later period. Overall, the centralized acquisition and processing of cotton in the new season bring a large number of hedging needs, with significant upward pressure and cost support below. It is expected that cotton prices will fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 107,544 lots, down 10,544 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 262 lots, down 60 lots. The main - contract position of cotton is 593,229 lots, up 231 lots; the main - contract position of cotton yarn is 23,282 lots, up 1,127 lots. The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 2,579, down 19; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,052 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 14,007 yuan/ton. The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,200 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,466 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,742 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged. The daily profit of imported cotton is 672 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, up 10 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.4145904 billion US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2393202 billion US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 8.28%, up 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 8.33%, up 0.11%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.29%, up 0.99%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.93%, up 0.29% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 177,200 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of October, with a daily average export volume of 13,600 tons, a 7% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 12,770 tons in October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 280,900 tons. The ICE cotton futures fell slightly on Monday. The December cotton futures contract on ICE closed down 0.12 cents, or 0.19%, at 64.16 cents per pound [2]