中国经济3季度：韧性犹存，转型加速

Macroeconomic Overview - The Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in the first three quarters of 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, and a quarterly growth of 4.8% in Q3, indicating stable performance within a reasonable range [1][13] - Domestic demand continues to rise steadily, contributing 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% in the first three quarters, and a significant rebound to 6.5% in September, exceeding market expectations [2][21] - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.8%, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing growing at 9.6% and 9.7% respectively, indicating a deepening trend towards high-end and intelligent transformation [2][29] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but grew by 3.0% when excluding real estate development investment [6] - Investment in high-tech industries maintained rapid growth, with information services, aerospace equipment manufacturing, and computer equipment manufacturing investments increasing by 33.1%, 20.6%, and 7.4% respectively [6][38] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a more pronounced decline of 21.3% in September [7] - New housing sales area and sales value decreased by 5.5% and 7.9% respectively in the first three quarters, although the decline has narrowed compared to the previous year [7] Trade Performance - The total import and export volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with exports growing by 7.1% [8][9] - Exports of high-tech products continued to grow rapidly, with machinery and electrical products accounting for 60.5% of total exports, and integrated circuit exports maintaining a growth rate of over 30% for three consecutive months [9][52] Financial Data - The total social financing increased by 30.09 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [10][50] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.4% year-on-year, indicating improved liquidity and a more effective transmission of financial policies [10][50] Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with core CPI rising by 0.6%, reflecting a gradual improvement in core inflation [11][37] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year, but showed signs of improvement in recent months, indicating a potential stabilization in price levels [11][39]