化工日报-20251021

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PVC: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Pure benzene, short - fiber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1][5] - Styrene, PTA, methanol, urea, caustic soda, soda ash, glass: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish and bearish trends are in a relatively balanced state with poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1][3][5][6][7][8] - PX, ethylene glycol, bottle - chip: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance between bullish and bearish trends and low operability on the market [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the chemical industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost fluctuations, and seasonal changes. The market sentiment is also influenced by external factors like oil prices, trade situations, and policy expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. The price hit a new low this year, but the market trading atmosphere improved as producers aimed to stabilize the market and downstream purchasing increased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated. For polyethylene, the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure increasing. For polypropylene, new capacity and reduced maintenance led to expected supply growth, while downstream demand was less than expected [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The spot price in East China continued to fall.开工 declined, port inventory rose, and the high import volume was the main pressure. A monthly spread reverse arbitrage was recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose but remained below the 5 - day moving average. The cost support declined, supply decreased slightly, and demand increased slightly. However, the price still continued to decline [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded in the morning and fell in the afternoon. PX supply decreased due to maintenance, while PTA supply was expected to increase. There was a profit improvement in the polyester industry, but PX and PTA prices were still weak with a back - spread strategy recommended [5] - Ethylene glycol prices oscillated. Domestic production decreased slightly, and the port continued to accumulate inventory. There was no substantial positive news in the short term, and the mid - term demand was to be observed [5] - Short - fiber had limited new capacity, high - load operation, and inventory reduction. It was recommended to be long - positioned. Bottle - chip's processing margin improved, but demand weakened with the cooling weather [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports in coastal areas may slow down. The port inventory decreased last week, and the planned arrival volume was high this week. The domestic methanol production was at a high level, and the market was expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [6] - Urea futures oscillated strongly. Agricultural demand started, but industrial demand declined. The market supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply was expected to increase as maintenance ended. Domestic demand was stable, and export might face pressure in the future. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [7] - Caustic soda supply might fluctuate slightly. Non - aluminum downstream replenished inventory at low prices, and it was recommended to be cautious when short - selling [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to decline. Supply was still high, and demand from photovoltaic glass decreased. It was recommended to short after a rebound [8] - Glass prices continued to weaken. The glass factory's inventory increased, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. It was suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options [8]