偏空氛围减弱，能化震荡企稳

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday this week, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, stabilizing and rebounding, with a slight increase. The price center during the session moved up slightly to around 15,150 yuan/ton, and it closed with a 1.92% gain at 15,150 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 spread converged to 5 yuan/ton. Supported by better - than - expected production and sales in the domestic auto market, the demand drive increased, which was conducive to the valuation repair of the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 [6]. - On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,279 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,233 yuan/ton, and it closed 0.53% lower at 2,268 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol market is still in a stage of oversupply and weak demand, and the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 remains in a weak state [6]. - On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 440.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 431.8 yuan/barrel, and it closed 0.32% lower at 437.7 yuan/barrel. The continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the resumption of the trade tariff war by Trump, the occurrence of systemic risks, the continued production increase by OPEC + oil - producing countries, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict in the Middle East led to the retracement of the geopolitical premium of crude oil [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%, and the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. During the period, the overhauled enterprises resumed work as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of most enterprises returned to the pre - holiday level, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. There were certain differences in the overall shipment performance during the period. Some enterprises carried out promotional activities, and the shipment was better than before the holiday, while the shipment rhythm of some enterprises slowed down due to price increases [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index continued to expand steadily. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, and it had remained in the high - prosperity range of over 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales in China reached 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year sharp increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20%, laying a foundation for the annual total sales volume to reach 1.1 million vehicles [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.38%, a week - on - week slight increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month significant increase of 4.99%, and a slight increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared with the 1.8651 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 30.95%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 6.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 71.61%, a week - on - week significant decline of 10.04%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 54.89%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3.00%. As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 5.48%. As of October 17, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight decline of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month slight decline of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China remained at 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week slight decline of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decline of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 359,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared with the 469,600 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 418, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 10, 2025, the daily average US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a year - on - year significant increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight increase of 3.235 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 703,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 760,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 85.7%, a week - on - week significant decline of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month significant decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decline of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts, and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average of 122,063 contracts in August. Meanwhile, as of October 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 31,345 contracts, and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts or 49.01% compared with the average of 216,355 contracts in September [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,300 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,150 yuan/ton | +340 yuan/ton | - 850 yuan/ton | - 340 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,285 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,268 yuan/ton | +2 yuan/ton | +17 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 412.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 437.7 yuan/barrel | +1.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.7 yuan/barrel | - 2.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20][24][26][29]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [43][45][47][49][51][53].