南华期货油脂产业周报：宏观情绪下油脂走弱，关注企稳之后的上行机会-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean market is in a vacuum period with increased volatility due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and the US government shutdown. The Malaysian palm oil data in September was below expectations, but the export in October rebounded. The Indonesian B40 plan is progressing slowly, and there are concerns about production due to heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia. The overall downside space for palm oil is limited. In China, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient in the short term, but the de - stocking expectation is strengthened after the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term trend of the oil market is weak adjustment, and the medium - term is wide - range oscillation. There are opportunities for upward movement in the future, and attention should be paid to the relationship between China and the US, China and Canada, as well as the weather, de - stocking progress in palm oil producing areas, and new news about B50 [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the market is waiting for the final policy in November. The US government shutdown has made it impossible to obtain key agricultural data, increasing the volatility of the global soybean market [1]. - Malaysian palm oil data in September was not as expected, with limited production decline and general de - stocking progress. However, the export in October rebounded. The Indonesian B40 plan is progressing slowly, and there are concerns about production due to heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the overall downside space for palm oil is limited [1]. - The overall supply of the three major oils in China is sufficient in the short term, but the raw material supply will decrease after the fourth quarter, and the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9100 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of rebound and long - position after stabilization [22]. - Technical Analysis: One can enter the market to go long after the stabilization of P2601 [22]. - Base - Spread, Month - Spread and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: Consider using cumulative option to reduce the risk of base - spread pricing. For the month - spread, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will widen, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil will narrow [22]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8700, 9700 - 10500, and 9000 - 9900 respectively. Their current volatilities and historical percentiles are also provided [23]. - Hedging Strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [23]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - The latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets are provided [24][27][28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Malaysia's palm oil export from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25%. The US renewable fuel blending quantity in September exceeded that in August [30][31]. - Negative Information: Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of October 18 was 21.7%. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending October 16 was 1474354 tons. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory as of October 17 increased by 5.13% week - on - week [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, and USDA and US government - related information [39][40]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic Market: After the bearish MPOB report in September and the weakening of the macro - sentiment, the overall oil market weakened. The funds in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. The near - month term structure of oils remained steep, and the market was still in a Back structure [40][41]. - Foreign Market: The foreign market was weakly oscillating. The B50 road test completion in Indonesia and the expected production reduction supported the price, but the weakening of the macro - sentiment and the unexpected inventory in Malaysia's report led to a decline in the market [62]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO spread remains high, and the BOHO spread decreased this week. The overall production cost of bio - fuels is still high [69]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price improved slightly and then weakened again, and the buying sentiment of domestic traders is expected to change little [72]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - The production decline of Malaysian palm oil in September was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations, which was bearish for the market. However, with the implementation of B30 in Malaysia, the domestic demand is good. The subsequent production may decline further, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease [74]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm Oil: The cost is firm, the demand is weak, and the purchasing willingness of traders is low. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large [76]. - Soybean Oil: The soybean arrival level in October is still high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but it may decrease from December [76]. - Rapeseed Oil: The current inventory is high, but it will gradually de - stock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [76]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is large, the demand is weak, and it is expected to remain stable and weak [78].