Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Coke and coking coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is generally weak, with the overall domestic demand remaining weak and the rebound momentum of the market being insufficient. It is expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain still existing, but there are also certain expectations for policy benefits [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be more prone to rising than falling, with relatively strong support near the previous lows [4][5] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are in a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions and steel tender information [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The daily market fluctuated mainly. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly month - on - month but remained weak year - on - year. The output continued to decline, and the inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, with a slight decline in output and a slowdown in inventory accumulation. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly in September, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. The overall domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebound momentum was insufficient, and it was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The market fluctuated on the day. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level but was still stronger than the annual average and the same period last year, and the port inventory increased significantly. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel improved month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly from a high level. As the terminal peak season ended and the steel mill profits shrank to a low level, the pressure on iron - making water production cuts increased. There were still concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain due to repeated external trade frictions, but there were also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The second round of price increase for coking started. The coking profit was average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Currently, downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities and mainly consumed inventory, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coke market price was slightly higher than the spot price, and there were expectations for an increase in coke costs due to the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices mainly increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The output did not increase significantly after the holiday. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coking coal market price was slightly lower than the Mongolian coal price, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [5] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing information of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared with the transaction price in September. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The weekly output of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The long - term demand was still good. The quoted price of manganese ore during the shipping period increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [6] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the steel tender information. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]
黑色金属日报-20251021
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-21 11:15