国投期货农产品日报-20251021

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different agricultural products are as follows: - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Palm oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as supply - demand, trade relations, and government policies on prices and provides corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract has reduced positions and prices have corrected. The auction of domestic soybeans provides pricing reference. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans shows a correction trend. The market sentiment for imported soybeans is optimistic, but the export demand is uncertain. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress, market acquisition performance, and policy guidance [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal (Lianpo) continues to oscillate at a low level. The current domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. If Sino - US trade relations continue to deteriorate, the supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if Sino - US trade does not ease, Lianpo is likely to continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil prices are oscillating, and the oil - meal ratio is adjusted. The short - term domestic soybean crushing demand is good, but the export demand is uncertain. The international palm oil market has near - term weak demand and long - term positive expectations. In the long - term, it is expected that oils are more resilient than meals, and it is advisable to buy oils at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have declined. The rise in foreign oilseed prices reflects optimistic expectations for Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, which puts pressure on the domestic market. The supply side of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has a strong willingness to support prices. It is recommended to take a short - term long position in rapeseed products and use rapeseed products as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies [6] Corn - The main corn contract has increased positions and prices have risen. The supply of wet corn in the Northeast is sufficient, and the supply in Shandong has decreased. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The corn market is expected to continue to run weakly at the bottom, with possible increased volatility [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded, driven by secondary fattening and consumption improvement. Although the supply pressure is still large, the price is in a rebound cycle. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds, as there may be a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has continued to fall, and the futures market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term. The old - hen culling is cautious, and the cold - storage eggs are a potential pressure on the spot market. It is recommended to hold a short position [9]