瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation remains weak, and the overall loose capital situation may drive the bond market to fluctuate strongly. However, uncertainties such as Sino-US trade policies and the new regulations on public fund fees will continue to affect market sentiment. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The strategy suggests a band - trading approach [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.16% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 392, 9672, and 4833 respectively, while TL main contract trading volume increased by 11147 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - Most futures spreads showed an upward trend, such as TL2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.01, T2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.02, TF2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.03, etc. Some spreads decreased, like T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.26 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also increased to varying degrees [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - Some bonds' clean prices increased, such as 250018.IB increased by 0.0290, 250003.IB increased by 0.0473, etc. Some remained unchanged [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active Treasury bonds with different maturities all increased. For example, the 1 - year yield increased by 7.50bp, the 3 - year yield increased by 1.50bp, etc. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Most short - term interest rates increased. For example, the overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.82bp, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 4.33bp, etc. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 1595 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 910 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2] 3.9 Industry News - In October, the LPR quotation remained stable. The central government arranged 5000 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to be issued to local areas, and will advance the issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, social consumption growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was held from October 20th to 23rd. The US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released at 20:30 on October 24th [3]