瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For corn: With the progress of US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting downward pressure on US corn prices. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, farmers' willingness to sell has slightly decreased, and the arrival volume of processing enterprises has dropped significantly, with some enterprises raising prices slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the harvest of new corn has been slow due to continuous rainfall, and the market is optimistic about the high - quality grain market, with purchase prices continuing to rise. The corn futures price has rebounded, but it is still recommended to sell on rallies due to the upcoming concentrated listing pressure [2]. - For corn starch: As the supply of raw corn increases, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the festival, the industry's operating rate has increased significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. The industry inventory remains high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch still exist, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Although the starch price has risen in tandem with the rebound of corn, the overall starch market is still in a bearish trend, and a bearish strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2144 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): 6 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1): 49 yuan/ton. Futures closing price of CBOT corn: 424 cents/bushel. Futures positions (active contract): 49071 hands for yellow corn, 849415 hands for corn starch. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 75401 hands for corn, - 59726 hands for corn starch. Registered warehouse receipts: 49324 hands for yellow corn, 12504 hands for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract: 317 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT: Total corn positions (weekly): 1543065 contracts, an increase of 13269 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of corn: - 51186 contracts, a decrease of 15017 contracts [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2259.41 yuan/ton, down 3.34 yuan; factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun: 2510 yuan/ton; flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2180 yuan/ton; import cost - insured and duty - paid price of corn: 1981.56 yuan/ton, down 0.79 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 0 US dollars/ton. Corn starch main contract basis: 130 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; corn main contract basis: - 9.34 yuan; Shandong starch - corn spread (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan [2] 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2458.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.73 yuan; cassava starch - corn starch spread (weekly): 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan; corn starch - 30 - powder spread: - 188 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [2] 3.5 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.44 million hectares, an increase of 0.55 million hectares; forecasted yield: 425.26 million tons. Forecasted sown area in Brazil: 131 million hectares; forecasted yield: 22.6 million tons. Forecasted sown area in Argentina: 53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 7.5 million tons. Forecasted sown area in China: 295 million hectares; forecasted yield: 44.3 million tons. Forecasted yield in Ukraine: 32 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 38.7 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 203.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.2 million tons. Corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 93 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 119.9 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons. Monthly import volume of corn: 4 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 14800 tons, a decrease of 1140 tons. Monthly feed production: 2927.2 million tons [2] 3.7 Downstream Situation - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 24.44 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 122.31 million tons, an increase of 3.04 million tons. Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 53.19%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 56.74%, an increase of 4.93 percentage points. Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan; in Hebei: 83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jilin: 47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] 3.8 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.14%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility: 6.83%. Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 10.36%, a decrease of 4.69 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options: 10.37%, a decrease of 4.68 percentage points [2] 3.9 Industry News - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is cautious about whether a La Nina phenomenon is currently forming. As of October 16, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 51%, compared with 45% a week ago and 48% in the same period last year. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture did not release the crop progress report, and market trading remained cautious [2]