固定收益周报：四季度债市或将维持震荡格局-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to show a warming trend in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, but it is still a relatively weak asset and is likely to be dominated by a volatile market. Investors are advised to be cautiously optimistic and flexibly seize trading opportunities [5][58]. - In the short term, the resurgence of trade frictions provides some support for the bond market, but the conflict may still fluctuate. Attention should also be paid to the potential short - term disturbances caused by the reform of public fund sales fees and the potential selling pressure from banks [5][58]. - It is recommended to prioritize the layout of medium - and short - term bond varieties, such as 5 - 6 - year policy financial bonds and local bonds, and 7 - year and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, which have sufficient spread protection [5][58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - From October 13th to 17th, the bond market showed a volatile pattern under the influence of multiple factors such as tariff disturbances, fundamental data, policy signals, and market sentiment, with the yield curve shifting downward overall. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond decreased by about 0.5bp to 1.7475% [2][8]. - Treasury yield performance was differentiated, and most of the key - term spreads of Treasury bonds narrowed [10][14]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Funding Situation - From October 13th to 17th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 49.79 billion yuan. The next week's reverse - repurchase maturity is 67.31 billion yuan, less than the previous week. The funding rate has increased, and the funding situation remains in a tight balance [16][17]. - The SHIBOR rate showed a differentiated performance, with the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month, and 3 - month rates changing by 0.40bp, 1.20bp, - 2.10bp, 0.10bp, and - 0.10bp respectively as of October 17th compared to October 11th [28]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - From October 13th to 17th, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds increased, with the net financing amount also increasing. The government bond issuance scale increased month - on - month, while the net financing amount decreased month - on - month. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, with the net financing amount increasing month - on - month and the issuance rate rising [34][35][43]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook - The supply pressure of Treasury bonds will increase next week. The planned issuance of Treasury bonds is 633 billion yuan, and the planned issuance of local government bonds is 196.7 billion yuan [3][56]. - The funding situation is likely to remain relatively loose. Before the tax - payment period disturbance, the funding situation is expected to maintain a relatively loose state [4][57]. 3.4 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to prioritize the layout of medium - and short - term varieties and look for varieties with similar maturities and wider spreads [5][58]. 3.5 Global Asset Classes - The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened. The 10Y - 2Y term spread widened by 3bp to 56bp [59]. - The U.S. dollar index declined slightly, and the central parity rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB was lowered. The prices of gold and silver rose significantly, while the price of crude oil declined slightly [59][60][63].