商贸零售行业定期报告：9月社零同比+3%，态势良好

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The retail sales total for September 2025 reached 41,971 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 3%, aligning with expectations; retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased by 3.2% [5][13] - For the first nine months of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 365,877 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 4.5%, and a 4.9% increase for consumer goods excluding automobiles [5][13] - Online retail sales for the first nine months grew by 9.8%, with September's online retail sales at 13,002 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [26] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Data - In September, the retail sales of consumer goods totaled 41,971 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 3% [5][13] - The year-to-date retail sales from January to September reached 365,877 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 4.5% [5][13] Retail Data for Above Designated Size - In September, the retail sales for above designated size reached 17,776 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [14] - The retail sales for above designated size in goods increased by 2.7%, while the catering sector experienced a decline of 1.6% [14] Online Retail Data - The online retail sales for the first nine months totaled 112,830 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.8% [26] - The online retail sales in September were 13,002 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [26]