以史为鉴：本轮港股调整时空有多大

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market has officially entered a new bull market starting January 2024, marking the sixth complete bull-bear cycle since 2003 [1][5] - Historical data shows that during previous bull markets, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced an average maximum drawdown of approximately 7% lasting about 12 trading days, while the Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTI) had an average maximum drawdown of around 8.8% [6][11] - The report emphasizes that the current market adjustment is significant but aligns with historical averages, suggesting that positive signals such as improved US-China relations and domestic policy initiatives could support market stability [1][4] Market Adjustment Analysis - The report analyzes the recent market adjustment, noting that since October 2, the HSI has seen a maximum decline of 8.2% and the HSTI has dropped by 14.6%, which is significant compared to historical small drawdowns [4][20] - Small drawdowns typically occur after rapid market increases and are often triggered by minor negative factors, while larger drawdowns are associated with liquidity tightening and substantial negative shocks [8][12] Future Market Outlook - The report forecasts that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks will continue into the fourth quarter, driven by optimism in the AI sector and a recovery in the internet sector [20][22] - It highlights that the technology sector remains the main focus, with potential benefits from AI developments and a favorable asset structure in Hong Kong [20][22] - The report also notes that foreign capital may return to the Hong Kong market if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and if US-China trade relations stabilize [22][23] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that Hong Kong's internet giants are likely to benefit from the AI narrative, with significant investments expected in AI infrastructure [20][22] - It also points out that the low interest rate environment and policies promoting dividends could enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [23][24]