海外科技反弹，国内红利更优

Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a general rebound, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed up by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.4% [6][10] - In the developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 3.8%, while the German DAX had the weakest performance with a decline of 1.7% [6][10] - In the emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 1.9%, while the ChiNext Index was the worst performer, down by 5.7% [6][10] Trading Sentiment - The VIX index remained at a high level, indicating elevated market volatility [23] - Trading volumes varied across global markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index seeing increases, while the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 experienced declines [23][25] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong was at a historical low, while North American sentiment was at a historical high [23] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for the technology and financial sectors in Europe and the U.S. were revised upward [68] - The 2025 EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index was downgraded from 2060 to 2055, while the S&P 500's EPS forecast was upgraded from 268 to 269 [68][71] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index maintained its 2025 EPS forecast at 332, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision [68][71] Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Central Europe improved, with the European economic surprise index rising [6] - The U.S. economic surprise index declined due to ongoing government shutdowns and regional banking issues, while the Chinese economic surprise index also fell [6] Fund Flows - The market is pricing in two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with expectations rising from the previous week [54][59] - Recent fund flows indicated significant inflows into the Hong Kong stock market, totaling 78 billion HKD, with notable contributions from the Stock Connect program [65][67] Valuation Metrics - Developed markets' PE and PB ratios were reported at 24x and 3.9x, respectively, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical norms [32] - Emerging markets showed a decline in valuation metrics, with PE and PB ratios at 16.6x and 2.1x, respectively [36] - Sector valuations in the Hong Kong market showed healthcare and technology sectors with the highest PE ratios, while energy and financial sectors had the lowest [45]