重卡行业9月跟踪月报：内销与出口共振，景气度持续向好-20251021

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [57]. Core Views - The report highlights that September sales, including production, wholesale, retail, and exports, exceeded expectations, with significant year-on-year growth [5][10]. - The total production in September reached 101,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 69.0% and a month-on-month increase of 15.3% [5]. - The wholesale volume for September was 106,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The terminal sales for September were 83,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [5]. - Export sales in September amounted to 31,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The overall inventory in September decreased by 13,000 units, with a total industry inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In September, the production, wholesale, retail, and export figures all surpassed expectations, with terminal sales showing a strong year-on-year growth of 91.5% [5][14]. - Cumulative terminal sales from January to September reached 569,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.9% [14]. Market Structure - The report indicates that logistics vehicles outperformed engineering vehicles in September, with logistics vehicle sales at 74,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 92.8% [23]. - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for September was led by Jiefang, Dongfeng, and Heavy Truck, with respective shares of 21.8%, 19.4%, and 16.6% [36]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the leading market share in the engine segment, with a share of 19.4% in September, showing a slight increase from the previous month [43]. - The report notes that Weichai's terminal配套量 reached 16,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 80.2% [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton Motor due to favorable policies [52].